A-Mark Precious Metals Market News
Source: SeekingAlpha - May 20, 2013 3:33 AM
By Pater Tenebrarum:
Commitments of Traders
Last week's commitments of traders report (cut-off date Tuesday May 21) showed little change (approx. 3,500 contracts net), but only about 83,000 contracts remain of the large speculator net long position in the 100 ounce COMEX contract. Since the price declines later in the week are not captured in this report, further changes have since then presumably occurred. Again, it is not bullish when the large speculator gross short position increases and it is still doing so (currently at 103,195 contracts). Gold has given a new MACD sell signal on the daily chart, so these short positions have probably increased further. That may change if the test of the April crash low is successful, which currently appears to have low probability due to gold stocks having reached lower lows late last week.
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Gold, commitments of traders. Small speculators are now neutral and the
Source: SeekingAlpha - May 20, 2013 3:40 AM
By Jason Hamlin:
Global gold demand for the first quarter of 2013 declined both in terms of tonnage (-13%) and dollars (-16%).
The volume decline was driven primarily by 177 tonnes of outflows from ETFs, versus inflows of 53 tonnes last year. If we remove this component from the mix, total global demand actually increased by 8% during the first quarter.
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It is somewhat odd to see that investment demand in the form of bars and coins climbed by a healthy 10.3%, while ETF investment demand turned negative and total holdings dropped by over 7%. Some of this divergence can be explained by investors exiting paper positions in precious metals in favor of taking possession of the physical metal. This decision stems from a growing distrust of the banks and financial institutions that act as custodians for the popular gold and silver ETFs. Many precious metals investors do not believe
Source: SeekingAlpha - May 20, 2013 4:47 AM
By Kevin Wilbur:
This past February, following gold's second leg down from the relatively lofty price levels it enjoyed in November 2012 (and after falling 15% lower), many analyst were suggesting the time had become ripe to re-enter gold. I was concerned that too many were ignoring gold's seasonal trading pattern, so I published an article titled "Gold Chart: Price May Be Right, But Is Timing?".
In this article I presented the chart below, highlighting gold's relative weakness from March through June the past four years, and I suggested that on a risk-reward basis this price history might not favor a February re-entry. This article was written on February 26th and published on SA the next day. I also suggested then that waiting until summer for re-entry seemed a more prudent strategy. Here is a copy of the chart I presented.
GLD ETF: 4-YEAR DAILY OHLC
(Click on chart to enlarge and continue
Source: SeekingAlpha - May 20, 2013 5:33 AM
This article considers the price action and prospects of PMs (precious metals) and PM miners. As a preface to investing strategy and sector outlook it reviews the opinion of an experienced financial professional on the process that adds to PM sector volatility and risk. Although valuations there now are compelling it is difficult to call a bottom based on fundamentals. Price action on Friday May 17 is a context for the following discussion. I hope this piece will help investors avoid big losses and panic selling.
Some people contend that the gold market is manipulated by major banks in a way similar to the rigging of LIBOR (London Interbank Offer Rate that sets interest rates worldwide) that earlier this year elicited billions of dollars in fines. By gaming daily spot prices, so goes one argument, some major players profit in ways that disorder markets and patterns of
Source: SeekingAlpha - May 20, 2013 6:55 AM
By The Gold Report:
Jurisdiction risk continues to grow as a result of countries attempting to capitalize on higher commodity prices. In this interview for The Gold Report, Thibaut Lepouttre, editor of Caesars Report, a newsletter and mining portal in Belgium, discusses which jurisdictions offer better value to investors and which countries to avoid. He also offers suggestions on where to look outside of North America for compelling values in junior mining.
The Gold Report: Thibaut, at your presentation at the Prospectors and Developers Association of Canada in March, you said that country risk was the second most important factor investors should look at when analyzing mining companies. Obviously, management is the most important factor, but how has country risk changed over the previous five years or so?
Thibaut Lepouttre: I think you will agree that there is a direct correlation between the rise in commodity prices and
Source: SeekingAlpha - May 19, 2013 2:45 PM
By Osman Gulseven:
By Dr. Osman Gulseven
The April 2013 crash of gold (GLD) and silver (SLV) prices triggered a wave of panic across the globe. As large institutional investors dumped holdings in gold ETFs, prices for both precious metals spiraled downward. Even bullish gold fanatics were forced to dissolve long-term positions due to margin calls and stop-loss orders coming into play.
Silver, with its affinity to gold prices, also saw its prices tumble down over the same period. The white metal had already entered a bear market in early April when prices reached 27.47 an ounce. By the time gold prices had crashed, silver dropped almost 40% to the $22 mark from its 2012 high. On the other hand, gold fell roughly 20% from its October 2012 peak, signaling perilous times ahead for the two commodities.
Those still holding onto gold and silver assets, including government reserves worldwide, saw
Source: SeekingAlpha - May 19, 2013 7:02 AM
By Avi Gilburt:
Many have been quite surprised by the demand for gold in India of late. In fact, gold and silver imports into India in April more than doubled the amount from a year earlier. So, why did gold fall this past week?
Well, in very simple terms, sentiment is not yet ripe for the rally to take hold, but we are getting much, much closer. However, I am still unconvinced that it will be more than a corrective rally, as my primary expectation of a bottom sometime in the summer or fall.
As I discussed in my most recent silver article, it seems that many are now coming to the realization that QE will not drive metals prices higher. In my silver article, I pointed towards John Wagner's recent gold article noting the same. But also explained why I feel that most market participants inappropriately look towards the fundamental factors they
Source: SeekingAlpha - May 19, 2013 7:07 AM
By Avi Gilburt:
In short, probably not. And, it still seems that the low for this decline has not yet been hit either, but we are very close.
But, that does not preclude us from seeing a sizeable rally about to take hold in the near term, after we do hit our bottom around the corner. Yes, you heard me right. I am expecting a rally that can take us as high as the 26-27 region, still. But, the question will be if it is a rally which will be the start of the rally to new all-time highs, or simply a corrective rally setting up a final short trade into the final bottom sometime late this summer or early fall. At this time, I lean strongly towards the latter.
Last week, I noted that the potential existed for the market to head to the 26 region sooner rather than later. Clearly, when
Source: SeekingAlpha - May 17, 2013 9:05 PM
By Pater Tenebrarum:
Full Court Press
Not a day passes without the financial media denouncing gold as an investment option and hailing the bureaucrats heading the world's monopolist monetary central planning agencies as superheroes. It began prior to gold's recent breakdown, with widely cited bearish reports on gold published by Credit Suisse and Goldman Sachs, among others. Never mind that most of their arguments were easily unmasked as spurious. It should be no wonder, though: gold's rise was the most conspicuous evidence of faith in central banking being slowly but surely undermined. The banking cartel relies on the fiat money system remaining intact; the legal privilege of fractional reserve banking provides it with what is an essentially fraudulent profit center unparalleled by any other in the world (fraudulent in terms of traditional legal principles, but not in terms of the current law, of course). Not surprisingly, ever since the completely unrestrained fiat
Source: SeekingAlpha - May 17, 2013 2:39 PM
Source: SeekingAlpha - May 17, 2013 2:51 PM
By George Kesarios:
A new theory has emerged as an explanation for the big correction in gold and sliver.
The gold and silver crowd want everyone to believe that it's not gold's fault that it is falling, but the dollar's fault because it's rising. According to those who believe the dollar will go to zero, that's not suppose to be happening. I mean, the more the fed prints, the more the dollar is suppose to be debased right? Well that has not been happening.
Putting aside the issue if the dollar is being debased or not, the issue at hand is gold's correction. I have given many reasons in past articles for gold's correction (here, here and here), but the purpose of this article is not to tell you about gold's slide.
The purpose of this article is to prove that the dollar's appreciation -- against most currencies as
Source: SeekingAlpha - May 17, 2013 11:13 AM
The recent major selloffs in silver have given (SLV) investors an excellent chance to accumulate a long-term position in physical holdings and silver companies. As the price has come down I have been recommending for some time to dollar cost average and/or pyramid down into silver and silver equities. So what is the path to a surge in silver prices? My primary thesis, much of which is laid out in the background section here, is that the endless easy money policies from central banks around the globe have created a long-term tailwind for the various precious metals. Despite the short-term pressure on the metals, the Federal Reserve's continued accommodative and dovish policies should create a weaker dollar in the long run, inflation and in turn, bolster the prices of gold and silver. This thesis rests on silver being treated as a precious metal. Precious metals hold value and increase
Source: SeekingAlpha - May 17, 2013 7:36 AM
By Vladimir Zernov:
The World Gold Council has recently published its first quarter report on gold demand trends. Gold (GLD) is trading under $1450 once again. The report gives us a chance to see what's happening in the real world.
Here's the one single most important takeaway from the report: the overall gold demand was down 13% in the first quarter. The sole reason for this was the outflow from ETFs. Without this outflow, the demand growth would have been positive. Now, it's time to get into more detail.
Gold demand comes from jewelry and technology needs, as well as from investment and central bank purchases. Jewelry demand has grown 12% year-over-year. Countries responsible for the growth were China, India and the U.S. While China's most recent GDP numbers have disappointed investors, it's important to remember that the country is growing at high rates. More and more people in the world's most
Source: SeekingAlpha - May 17, 2013 12:10 AM
By Lior Cohen:
Silver Wheaton Corp. (SLW) hasn't performed well in recent weeks in the stock market as its shares declined. The price of silver also fell in recent weeks. Silver Wheaton's publication of the first quarter financial report showed growth in revenues. Conversely, its operating profitability slipped on account of the rise in gold sales. Will Silver Wheaton's stock continue to trade down? Will silver bounce back any time soon? Let's analyze the latest developments related to the silver market.
During May, shares of Silver Wheaton fell by 8%. In comparison, the price of silver declined by 6.2%. iShares Silver Trust (SLV) fell by 6.4%. Conversely, the stock market continued to recover as the S&P500 index increased by 3.1% during May (up to date).
So what's new Silver Wheaton?
First Quarter Financial Reports
Silver Wheaton published its first quarter financial reports for 2013 at the end of last week.
Source: SeekingAlpha - May 17, 2013 5:44 AM
By Dave Kranzler:
It's obvious that a great many people all over the world have been adding to their physical gold and silver positions or taking positions for the first time. This really is an incredible battle that is taking place right now between the physical market and the paper market in both gold and silver. - Trade/market analyst, Dan Norcini on King World News
Currently I don't think it's possible for the media reporting and investor sentiment to get any more negative toward gold. But quite frankly, given the extreme negative sentiment, in addition to the numerous other contrarian indicators I've outlined in previous articles, I have never in my life seen a market set up technically for a big bull move as gold/silver and the mining stocks are now.
When I woke up this morning I turned on Bloomberg News to catch the news headlines and see where the futures were
Source: SeekingAlpha - May 17, 2013 5:55 AM
By Chris Ridder:
A few days ago a Seeking Alpha article, "4 Scary Charts Warning Of The Next Financial Crisis" provided analysis of the Japanese debt situation. Its concluding recommendation:
If the crisis I foresee unfolds it could make 2008 look like a blip. If such an event occurs, investors should prepare to diversify across a range of assets, such as short-term US Treasuries (SHY), gold (GLD) and US dollars (UUP).
The difficulty I have with this recommendation is with GLD currently. This is because since the beginning of the year Japanese rates and gold, as shown by the GLD exchange traded fund, have been negatively correlated (except for the 7 day lag).
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Specifically this is the Japanese Government Bond (JGB) 10 Year rate daily change compared to the daily change of GLD. Here is a graph of the levels:
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One can see the
Source: SeekingAlpha - May 16, 2013 2:45 PM
By Russ Winter:
Considering the rush of gold orders in mid to late April, it is understandable that there would be some temporary delays in delivery. However, we're now into mid May and sources indicate those same orders are still unfulfilled. So it begs the question: Where's the gold?
The Shanghai Gold Exchange has an enormous appetite for physical gold, so much so that it's absorbing all world production month after month -- even before the April fire sale. A month's production averages about 230 tonnes. Gold Miner Pulse, which tracks the numbers from the Shanghai Gold Exchange, reports that during the week of April 22 only one tonne has been delivered to the exchange. Since May 1, it has received only 0.3 tonnes.
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The Economic Times of India reports a similar story. Furthermore, many Indian jewelers said compared to last year they expected gold sales will be
Source: SeekingAlpha - May 16, 2013 2:06 PM
Exposure to country risk for selected gold mining companies is being analyzed in an ongoing series of articles. The present article will document our results for the South-African mining company Harmony Gold (HMY).
Harmony Gold has numerous underground and surface operations in South Africa and a joint venture (Hidden Valley) with Newcrest (NCMGF.PK) in Papua New Guinea. Harmony Gold's market capitalization at the time of writing is listed as $1.8B and a forward P/E is given as 4.79 on Yahoo.com. Harmony Gold produced 1.27M ounces of gold including a contribution from the Evander shaft that has been divested during 2012. The table below lists production, reserves and resources for Harmony Gold as provided in the 2012 annual report.
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The term "country risk" typically includes factors such as political risk, exchange rate risk, economic risk, sovereign risk, transfer risk, socio-economic risk and others. Depending
Source: SeekingAlpha - May 16, 2013 12:14 PM
By The Gold Report:
Europe, says James Turk, founder and chairman of GoldMoney, is in the midst of two crises-one in the banking sector, the other related to economic activity, and capital is needed to solve both. As to the allegedly strong dollar, Turk, in this interview with The Gold Report, suggests comparing it to the price of gold rather than other fiat currencies for a better picture. And the world's newest currency - Bitcoin - has a lot in common with one of the oldest - gold.
The Gold Report: James, from your perspective in Europe, is the region in as bad a financial crisis as it appears in the headlines here in the U.S.?
James Turk: Yes, it really is. However, Europe is a big place, and you have to look at the individual countries one by one to understand the situation. Generally speaking, the Mediterranean countries are
Source: SeekingAlpha - May 16, 2013 11:59 AM
Yesterday on CNBC Fortress Investment Group's Michael Novogratz stated that he wouldn't be surprised if gold dropped all the way back to $500.
I personally think gold is toast...if you were a gold bull and you got QE and then QE7 from the Japanese... nothing did it and we peaked out at $1,900 two years ago...if you run the gold chart over the NASDAQ over the Nikkei chart in 1989 they are identical...once bubbles pop they go all the way down.
He followed up his comments with:
Gold was a classic bubble...it had such a compelling story...bubbles come around spectacularly good stories that are believable. So once everyone believe it, there is no one left to buy...It wouldn't shock me to see gold back around $500.
Other interesting information gathered from the discussion is that the markets have been signaling the end of gold with the miners failing to